Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-16 26.868766 29.783783 33.111291 37.245520 42.325088 48.476801 56.680750
2025-02-23 22.520042 26.151704 30.658599 36.848258 45.463149 57.637909 77.534790
2025-03-02 19.871756 23.861263 29.129330 36.964528 49.113059 69.046573 110.075307
2025-03-09 17.864333 21.975427 27.659385 36.655834 51.926779 80.714936 157.220788
2025-03-16 16.316413 20.443940 26.357830 36.201421 54.261765 93.082196 231.513861
2025-03-23 15.109267 19.214766 25.271680 35.793262 56.487625 107.072337 366.822936
2025-03-30 14.160074 18.238053 24.408881 35.545116 58.922258 124.125424 683.160265
2025-04-06 13.235188 17.199071 23.305725 34.634703 59.612867 137.247236 1395.608811
2025-04-13 12.933242 17.064187 23.628682 36.420299 67.333579 187.984193 NaN
2025-04-20 12.307080 16.366981 22.924763 36.047487 69.461249 220.702693 NaN
2025-04-27 11.850501 15.897958 22.555506 36.286275 73.475631 278.714356 NaN
2025-05-04 11.465670 15.511683 22.285517 36.681820 78.258307 370.258499 NaN
2025-05-11 11.066713 15.080561 21.904196 36.796265 82.430004 501.111789 NaN
2025-05-18 10.617303 14.537716 21.270989 36.232831 84.031337 633.026308 NaN
2025-05-25 10.280708 14.161755 20.913916 36.267545 88.101337 948.342170 NaN
2025-06-01 9.930200 13.741156 20.436575 35.933860 90.608065 1424.786436 NaN
2025-06-08 9.594773 13.327642 19.940175 35.479034 92.461040 2290.655093 NaN
2025-06-15 9.290937 12.952389 19.489665 35.077656 94.473783 4606.760786 NaN
2025-06-22 9.025845 12.630501 19.119750 34.834759 97.273240 22744.806461 NaN
2025-06-29 8.714781 12.214832 18.537998 33.953104 96.335778 367518.430732 NaN
2025-07-06 8.675973 12.270919 18.896274 35.678537 111.536884 NaN NaN
2025-07-13 8.445978 11.978423 18.528319 35.318049 114.010112 NaN NaN
2025-07-20 8.281765 11.795405 18.372226 35.548645 120.928328 NaN NaN